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The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the U.S. Economy
The Us Economy As 2022 Begins, The Conference Board forecasts that economic weakness will intensify and spread more broadly throughout the U.S. economy in the second half of 2022 and expects a recession to begin before the end of the year. This outlook is associated with persistent inflation and rising hawkishness by the Federal Reserve. As a result, we forecast that 2022 Real GDP growth will come in at 1.4 per cent year-over-year, and 2023 growth will slow to 0.3 per cent year-over-year.
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While We Do Not Believe The U.S. Economy Is Currently in Recession –
Due to strength in several sectors and the extremely tight labor market – we expect that a broad downturn in the economy is on the way. Nevertheless, The Us Economy As 2022 Begins we are upgrading our forecast for Q3 2022 from 0.0 percent to 0.3 percent – mainly due to an upward revision in the previous quarter’s GDP data and several indicators pointing to a slight improvement in the economic momentum at the beginning of the quarter.
However. We expect these improvements to be short-lived as the Fed continues to raise interest rates to curb stubbornly high inflation readings. As a result, while consumer spending isn’t likely to contract until Q4 2022, we expect non-residential investment to buckle under the weight of higher interest rates sooner. In addition, residential investment will continue to hire as the housing market finds a new equilibrium.
The Weakening Economic Growth Remained Seen Throughout 2022
coupled with persistently high inflation readings are consistent with a stagflation environment. While easing supply side constraints and a more hawkish monetary policy should help to cool inflation over the coming quarters. Rising interest rates will tip the U.S. economy into a broad-based recession before year-end. This contraction will impact highly tight labor markets and increase unemployment. We expect the coming recession to be relatively short and somewhat mild, but the U.S. economy will emerge from the slowdown in 2023. Still grappling with inflation well above the Fed’s 2-percent target. This period will also exhibit stagflation characteristics – though not as severe as those presently.
Risks To Our Forecast Remain Plentiful.
On the downside (1) the Federal Reserve could hike more aggressively than expected (2) the housing market could see a significant correction. And (3) inflation could be even more persistent than forecasted. All three of these risks could result in a more prolonged, more acute contraction in 2023. In our view, the only significant upside risk is a rapid and unexpected decline in inflation. However, even if this were to occur, we do not believe a growth slowdown would be avoidable.
The World’s Largest Economies, 2022
With a GDP of 22.3 trillion USD the United States is by far the world’s largest economy in this ranking for 2022. It is followed by China in 2nd place with a GDP of still 19.9 trillion USD. The remaining countries that rounded out the world’s 20 largest economies all had GDPs that ranged between 800 billion and five trillion U.S. dollars.
Japan (4.9 trillion USD) is also far ahead in the international comparison and could occupy 3rd place in this ranking. Germany had the 4th largest economy, at almost 4.2 trillion U.S. dollars; Europe’s largest economy. Compared to the 20 largest economies in 2020. Switzerland moved into 20th place in 2022 pushing Taiwan off the top 20 list.
Global Gross Domestic Product Amounts
Almost 94 trillion U.S. dollars, The Us Economy As 2022 Begins with the United States making up more than one-fifth of this figure alone. The ten largest economies in the world include all the struggling Group of Seven (G7) economies and the worlds fastest growing major economies China India and Brazil.
While This remained anticipated for a while. India has overtaken the U.K. to become the world’s fifth-largest economy and is now behind only the U.S. China Japan and Germany. A decade back, India was ranked 11th among large economies, while the U.K. was fifth. India has a population 20 times that of the U.K., so its GDP per capita is lower. Germany is Europe’s largest economy.